Betting on a landslide as Labour dominates UK political landscape

Lea Hogg July 4, 2024

Today the United Kingdom is on the brink of a historic election, with the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, heading towards a landslide victory. The betting odds reflect this sentiment, with a Labour majority being the outcome at 1/33. Other possibilities, such as a Labour minority or a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, are considered less likely, with odds of 50/1 and 66/1 respectively.

Starmer, who recently spoke at a campaign event at the Caledonia Gladiators Stadium, is predicted to secure a parliamentary majority of over 200. This would be the first general election victory for Labour since 2005, and the polls suggest it could be a landslide win.

UK General Election 2024	Odds
Labour Majority	1/33
Labour Minority	50/1
Conservative-Reform UK Coalition	66/1
Labour-Lib Dem Coalition	66/1

Source: SiGMA

The results are expected to mark a historic defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party, with Sunak being touted as the most unpopular Prime Minister in British history. Opinion polls suggest that Starmer is on course to win a House of Commons majority of more than 200, surpassing Sir Tony Blair’s 179 majority in 1997. This would give Labour its first general election victory since 2005.

A seismic political shift is in progress

A Keir Starmer government would have significant implications on the global stage. As leader of the Labour Party, Starmer’s potential rise to Prime Minister comes at a time when the extreme right, led by figures like Nigel Farage of the Reform Party, is shaping the political agenda in the UK. Farage’s controversial statements about Putin and the Ukraine invasion highlight issues that do not sit well with the British public, particularly on matters of foreign policy.

The current political climate shows a trend where voters are increasingly disillusioned with major parties, leading to the far-right influencing key election topics such as taxes, immigration, and transgender rights. The success or failure of Brexit remains a contentious topic. Was it doomed by its inherent flaws, or was it a sound concept marred by poor execution? This debate continues to divide opinion, with Farage’s potential reintegration into the Conservative Party raising concerns about a shift towards a more extreme right-wing stance within the Tories.

Starmer enjoys public support, yet the looming financial crisis in the UK remains unaddressed by both major parties. Critical issues like the funding of the NHS and education are in limbo, with the Institute of Financial Studies pointing to a “conspiracy of silence” regarding the true state of the economy and the adverse effects of Brexit on growth. Neither Starmer nor his Conservative counterpart is openly tackling the fallout from Brexit or the need for regulatory alignment with the EU.

Starmer’s approach has been notably cautious, aiming to avoid controversy in a campaign that many consider lacklustre. Labour’s lead in the polls suggests they are playing it safe, assuming that maintaining the status quo will secure victory. However, this strategy raises questions about how effectively they will address pressing issues like NHS waiting lists and the post-Brexit trade deal implementation. If Labour maintains its lead without major missteps, a Starmer government seems likely, but its ability to enact significant change remains uncertain.

The polling stations will open at 7 am and close at 10 pm. Anyone still queueing at 10 pm will be allowed to vote. By the time the polling stations close, the scale of the expected Conservative defeat be clear. The polls suggest that the Conservatives could win fewer seats than the 156 they won in 1906, which was their worst result to date.